Impacts of potential aircraft observations on forecasts of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific
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Authors
Mitchell, Mark C.
Subjects
Global Hawk
Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance
Observations
Data Assimilation
Numerical Weather Prediction
Typhoon
Recurve
Tropical Northern West Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance
Observations
Data Assimilation
Numerical Weather Prediction
Typhoon
Recurve
Tropical Northern West Pacific
Advisors
Harr, Patrick A.
Nuss, Wendell A.
Date of Issue
2014-12
Date
Dec-14
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
A goal of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) that was conducted in 2008 over the western North Pacific was to examine the targeted observation for improving initial conditions of numerical forecasts of typhoon track and intensity. Results indicated that observation impacts depended on the location of the observation with respect to the storm and the altitude from which the observation provided a profile of winds, temperature, and moisture. In this thesis, the experiment results were augmented by testing the impact of observations that could potentially be obtained from an unmanned Global Hawk aircraft taking observations over the large-scale environment from an altitude that provided for profiles of the entire troposphere. The case of Typhoon Sinlaku is used as operational typhoon track forecast scenarios were highly uncertain and research-based aircraft observations were available to test against the pseudo Global Hawk observations. Three numerical experiments are conducted such that initial conditions were based on conventional observations, conventional and inner-storm aircraft observations and conventional and pseudo Global Hawk observations. Inclusion of pseudo Global Hawk observations resulted in the most accurate intensity forecasts but track forecasts were best using observations of the storm inner core.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.