Russia’s Strategic Recalibration After the Ukraine Conflict: Implications for the Two Near-Peer Competitors Strategic Environment

Abstract

This research examines the evolving strategic partnership between Russia and China as near-peer, nuclear-armed adversaries for the U.S. in the wake of the war in Ukraine. It focuses on Russia’s new security situation after the conflict in Ukraine, particularly how it might attempt to compensate for its depleted strategic capabilities and resources by partnering with China. The research is organized along two parallel tracks. The first track, contained in Part 1 of the technical report, analyzes how Russia’s nuclear posture has evolved as result of the War in Ukraine, the internal political situation in Russia, and the strategic partnership with China. The second track of this research, contained in Part 2 of the technical report, examines the scope and strategic implications of the increased cooperation of Russia and China in two strategic realms: (1) the Russian defense industry; and (2) Russia’s space program.