Operational data tests with a tropical cyclone model
Loading...
Authors
Elsberry, Russell L.
Subjects
Tropical cyclone
Satellite wind estimates
Numerical weather prediction
Satellite wind estimates
Numerical weather prediction
Advisors
Date of Issue
1977-03
Date
July 1976 - March 1977
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
The coarse-grid version of the tropical cyclone prediction model described
by Ley and Elsberry (1976) has been used to evaluate the effect of using operationally-
analyzed rather than hand-analyzed data. A series of 41 cases from
the 1975 typhoon season resulted in larger errors than the official forecasts.
In most of the cases the track was forecast well, but the translation speed
was slow. Tests with a fourth-order advection scheme did not lead to significant
improvements over the second-order advection. Based on a subjective
classification of the initial fields, it was concluded the most likely source
of error was due to data deficiencies in the western Pacific region.
Wind direction estimates based on the Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) photographs were compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
(JTWC) hand-analyzed streamlines. About 65-70% of the DMSP direction estimates
at the gradient and 250-mb level were with + 10° of the hand-analyzed fields.
A comparison of the initial wind direction from the operationally-analyzed
fields used in the tropical cyclone model and the JTWC directions resulted in
large differences. Consequently the new data source of DMSP direction estimates
should be used in the operational analysis.
Type
Technical Report
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
NPS-63ES77031
Sponsors
Funder
N6685677WR00036
Format
28 p. : ill. ; 28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.