Faculty forecast and planning model for the Naval Postgraduate School
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Authors
Shipman, Brian K
Subjects
Forecasting
Manpower Modeling
Faculty Planning
Renewal Process
Operations Research
Manpower Modeling
Faculty Planning
Renewal Process
Operations Research
Advisors
Marshall, Kneale T.
Date of Issue
1997-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
eng
Abstract
This thesis develops a model for the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) to forecast future tenure-track faculty size and distribution. It enables decision makers to analyze the effects of tenure and retirement policies as well as determine recruitment levels to achieve and maintain a desired number of faculty members. The model estimates faculty retention characteristics, or continuation rates based upon the length of federal service (LFS) associated with historic loss data. These continuation rates are applied to a cross- sectional faculty profile to predict faculty legacies, i.e. the number of faculty who will continue service at NPS. Results show that faculty levels can be predicted with relative certainty out to a two year horizon. Additionally, the results show how salary increases in the early 1990's induced a delay in faculty retirements. We also present an embellishment to the model which incorporates age at loss as well as LFS to forecast only retirements. The forecasts from this model are not as conclusive as those obtained from the original
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.