Determination of the timeline for U.S. Army aviation systems to reach operational obsolescence following termination of modernization funding
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Authors
Dupree, Ron D.
Subjects
Obsolescence
Hazard Function
Weibull
Lognormal
Logistic
Distributions
Weapon System
Reliability
Competing Failure Rate
Hazard Function
Weibull
Lognormal
Logistic
Distributions
Weapon System
Reliability
Competing Failure Rate
Advisors
Olwell, David H.
Date of Issue
2003-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Identifying, countering, andpreventing operational obsolescence is a challenging but vital task for personnel involved in the design, acquisition and support of military equipment. In this thesis, I define the concept of operational obsolescence and show quantitative relationships between modernization funding timelines and operational obsolescence. Only if we truly understand obsolescence can we best combat its onset and effects. I use example data from both legacy and current Army Aviation Systems to draw conclusions about the impacts of particular modernization timelines on the various forms of obsolescence that cause operational obsolescence. I then make recommendations concerning the optimal modernization strategies for current and future aviation systems in order to facilitate the Army's ability to field and sustain the most tactically and logistically superior weapon systems possible. Using first principles, I construct Life Models based on hazard functions for each of the different forms of obsolescence. I then combine these models into an overall model, and discuss the design of a data system to estimate model parameters.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xviii, 73 p. ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.