Modeling and evaluating U.S. Army special operations forces combat attrition using Janus(A)

Abstract

This thesis examines the combat attrition of U.S. Army special operations forces (SOF). It develops a methodology for modeling SOF in Janus and calculating SOF attrition coefficients from high resolution combat model simulation results for use in Lanchester models of warfare. Selected missions involving SOF at the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC) are examined and likely force-on-force engagements between SOF and enemy forces are modeled in Janus. A statistical analysis of the simulation results is conducted and SOF attrition coefficients are calculated using the maximum-likelihood estimate of attrition coefficients technique. SOF casualty outcome trees are then developed for the scenarios modeled. Casualty outcome trees capture the overall results of the high resolution combat model and provide a framework for utilizing the attrition coefficients developed in this study. SOF casualty outcome trees could also be incorporated into aggregate combat models that resolve attrition using Lanchester models of warfare.