EVACUATION PLANS FOR NAVAL STATION NEWPORT AND AQUIDNECK ISLAND UNDER UNCERTAINTY
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Authors
Domanowski, Christina K.
Subjects
Aquidneck Island
Newport
NAVSTA
naval station
military
transportation
infrastructure
interdependency
robust optimization
uncertainty
stochastic
Newport
NAVSTA
naval station
military
transportation
infrastructure
interdependency
robust optimization
uncertainty
stochastic
Advisors
Eisenberg, Daniel
Date of Issue
2022-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Aquidneck Island, RI, is vulnerable to hurricanes; hence, evacuation plans are critical to the welfare of on-island military installations and communities. Coordination among communities is important as there are few on-island shelters and evacuation will require military and civilian evacuees to egress across the same bridges. Previous work studied optimal vehicle routing to minimize clearance times and coordinate evacuation. However, past work does not consider uncertainty involved in go (evacuate)/no-go (shelter-in-place) decisions. Under hurricane conditions, high winds will force bridge closures and calling an evacuation too late forces populations to shelter-in-place. In contrast, calling an evacuation too early for threatening, non-striking storms might direct evacuees off-island toward danger. We develop a model that can consider these tensions by combining synthetic forecasts for past storms, stochastic hurricane trajectory, expected evacuation demands, and optimal routing. We apply our model to two historical storms: Hurricane Bob in 1991 and Hurricane Gloria in 1985. Results show our model performs well for striking storms by evacuating the majority of vulnerable communities. However, our model also leads to large evacuations for threatening, non-striking storms. We conclude our model forms a good basis for evacuation planning yet needs additional analysis prior to use.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), 4800 Mark Center Drive, Suite 16F16, Alexandria, VA 22350
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.