Graphical prognosis including effects of vertical motion due to terrain gradients.
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Authors
Hesse, Theodore S.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
1957
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Two prediction models for graphical prognosis are developed and evaluated. The primary feature of these models which represents a departure from previous graphical methods is the inclusion of the terrain-induced vertical velocities. These vertical motions may in turn produce vorticity changes, and thus height changes. The first model presented is comprised of two separate parts; the first part is a prediction of the 500-mb surface and the second part a prediction of the 1000-mb to 500-mb thickness. The two parts may be combined to produce a surface (1000-mb) prognosis. This model failed to produce satisfactory results, and hence a second model was developed. The second model presented follows somewhat the development of the first, but avoids an assumption relating the surface and 500-mb winds that is believed to have contributed largely to the original failure. This model operates on the current 1000-mb and 1000-mb to 500-mb thickness charts; and, utilizing a fraction of the 500-mb height change as predicted by any other established method, produces a surface (1000-mb) prognosis. The model was tested in two ways; one with the terrain factor included in the prediction equation and one omitting the terrain factor. Both methods produced satisfactory prognoses. However, inclusion of the terrain factor consistently produced the better results.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Aerology