Propagating Uncertainty in Hierarchical Combat Models
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Authors
Lucas, Thomas W.
Sanchez, Paul J.
Ilaslan, Salih
Subjects
Design of experiments
hierarchical models
error propagation
combat modeling
response surface
hierarchical models
error propagation
combat modeling
response surface
Advisors
Date of Issue
2016
Date
Period of Performance: 10/01/2015-12/31/2016
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) uses a hierarchy of simulation models as part of scenario-based planning to help decide how the Navy should be equipped, organized, and employed. Simulation is used throughout the acquisition process, from platform design to force structure analysis. In hierarchical combat modeling, the mean outputs of lower-level, higher-resolution models are typically used as inputs to higher-level, lower-resolution models. The objective of this process is to inform Navy leadership on how detailed design changes ultimately impact campaign effectiveness. Unfortunately, by ignoring variability in linkages between layers in the hierarchy, the results may bias campaign-level outcomes or understate the final variability (or risk) estimated by the campaign-level model. The primary goal of this research was to design and run experiments to better understand the impacts on the hierarchical modeling process associated with error propagation methods and design of experiments techniques. Another objective was to developed new algorithms that improve upon our ability to explore high-dimensional combat models. To empirically explore a host of different error propagation approaches, this research conducted thousands of experiments using a two-model hierarchical structure in an air- to-air warfare setting. The results indicate that the manner in which the engagement and campaign models are linked significantly affects the estimates of operational effectiveness and risk. In addition, this research advanced our ability to explore combat models and fit response surfaces through the development and testing of new metamodeling approaches and sequential Latin hypercube methods.
Type
Report
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Research Program
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
N16-N206-A
Sponsors
Naval Research Program
Prepared for Topic Sponsor: OPNAV N9; Research POC Name: Mr. Chris Marsh
Prepared for Topic Sponsor: OPNAV N9; Research POC Name: Mr. Chris Marsh
Funder
N16-N206-A
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.