A cost-loss ratio model for hurricane sortie decisions
Loading...
Authors
Hatton, Mary T.
Subjects
Advisors
Boger, Dan C.
Date of Issue
1994-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis examines, using the framework of a cost-loss ratio, the dilemma of the Navy decision maker faced with the question of whether or not to sortie ocean-going ships from a port threatened by a hurricane. The long leadtime needed to execute a full sortie requires the decision maker to rely on hurricane forecasts that may contain large errors, despite improvements in forecasting over the past two decades. Furthermore, decision makers may have difficulty interpreting forecasts without the use of a decision aid. Analysis includes interviews with several tropical cyclone experts, a literature review of the economics of hurricanes, and a critique of a number of hurricane decision aids. Based upon this research, this thesis concludes that the CHARM model for setting hurricane readiness conditions is currently the best decision aid available for reducing the number of unnecessary sorties without putting the fleet at significantly increased risk
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
NA
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
NA
Format
120 p.;28 cm.