Breaking the ice: potential U.S.-Russian maritime conflict in the Arctic
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Authors
Aerandir, Mate Wesley
Subjects
Arctic
Conflict
Economic Interdependence
International Institutionalism
Threat
Economic Warfare
Navy
Coast Guard
United States
Russia
Canada
Denmark
Norway
China
Japan
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
UNCLOS
Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
CLCS
NATO
NATO-Russia Council
NRC
Arctic Council
Hydrocarbon
Oil
Gas
Arms Race
Conflict
Economic Interdependence
International Institutionalism
Threat
Economic Warfare
Navy
Coast Guard
United States
Russia
Canada
Denmark
Norway
China
Japan
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
UNCLOS
Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
CLCS
NATO
NATO-Russia Council
NRC
Arctic Council
Hydrocarbon
Oil
Gas
Arms Race
Advisors
Yost, David S.
Date of Issue
2012-12
Date
Dec-2012
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
While war in the Arctic appears unlikely at present, this thesis analyzes why an escalation of territorial and resource disputes in the Arctic up to and including the use of force cannot and should not be ruled out. This thesis examines the political, economic, and military interests of the main Arctic powers: Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States to set the scene for an assessment of the factors that could make for cooperation or conflict. Advocates of a Pax Arctica involving regional cooperation underrate the more pragmatic and competitive factors underlying international relations and the actual limits of international institutions and economic interdependence in restraining behavior in an anarchic system. The potential for U.S.-Russian maritime conflict in the region is genuine. Based on the methodology established for this analysis, it can be reasonably assessed that conflict in the Arctic is likely. No time horizon can be determined, however, because much depends on decisions made (or not made) by these same Arctic powers in the coming decades.
Type
Thesis
Description
Outstanding Thesis
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined
in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the
public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States
Code, Section 105, is not copyrighted in the U.S.