Operational effectiveness of suicide-bomber-detector schemes: A best-case analysis
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Authors
Kaplan, Edward H.
Kress, Moshe
Subjects
mathematical modeling
sensor detectors
suicide bombings
sensor detectors
suicide bombings
Advisors
Date of Issue
2005-07-19
Date
Publisher
The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Language
Abstract
Standoff explosives-detection technologies allow, in principle, for
the detection of pedestrian suicide bombers, although such sensors
are not yet sufficiently affordable and reliable to justify widespread
deployment. What if they were? Assuming the availability
of cheap, perfectly sensitive and specific suicide-bomber-sensing
devices, we analyze the operational effectiveness of sensor-based
detector schemes in reducing casualties from random suicide-bombing
attacks. We model the number of casualties resulting
from pedestrian suicide bombings absent intervention, the reduction
in casualties from alternative interventions, given timely
detection of a suicide-bombing attack, and the probability of
timely detection under best-case assumptions governing the performance
of suicide-bomber-detector schemes in two different
urban settings. Even under such optimistic assumptions, we find
that the widespread deployment of suicide-bomber detectors will
not reliably result in meaningful casualty reductions. Relaxing the
best-case assumptions only makes matters worse. Investment in
intelligence-gathering to prevent suicide bombers before they
attack seems a wiser strategy than relying on sensor-based suicide-bomber-
detector schemes.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1073 pnas.0500567102
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
This work was supported by
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Award 04-S625.
Format
Citation
Kaplan, Edward H., and Moshe Kress. "Operational effectiveness of suicide-bomber-detector schemes: A best-case analysis." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102.29 (2005): 10399-10404.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.