BALANCE OF POWER IN AFRICA: ECONOMIC AND SECURITY ENGAGEMENTS IN AFRICA IN THE 21ST CENTURY BY THE UNITED STATES, RUSSIA, AND CHINA
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Authors
Karanja, Janet W.
Subjects
trade imbalance
generalized network autoregressive
GNAR
trade networks
time series analysis
strategic competition
economic partnerships
generalized network autoregressive
GNAR
trade networks
time series analysis
strategic competition
economic partnerships
Advisors
Yoshida, Ruriko
Date of Issue
2024-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Deliberate policy shifts by China and Russia to significantly increase military and trade involvement within the African continent threatens the global balance of power in the 21st Century. The United States seeks to maintain and expand its footprint in Africa by deploying economic and military tools as a buffer against growing inroads from China and Russia. This study examines the significance of the imbalance between the United States and its two strategic competitors in Africa. This study is particularly relevant given the recent coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Sudan, and Niger that highlight security challenges underpinned by worsening economic conditions for citizens in Sub-Saharan Africa. Building on the macro-level analyses of global exchanges by researchers like Dorninger and Hickel that point to a pattern of unequal trade between developed and developing nations, this study adopts a more granular approach. The study utilizes the generalized network autoregressive (GNAR) model to show the economic imbalance between the three global powers juxtaposed against a select number of African countries. The results inform how the United States and its allies could integrate military deterrence operations with well-thought-out economic partnerships calibrated towards bolstering security and fostering more equitable trade outcomes with African countries.
Type
Thesis
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Sponsors
HQ AFRICOM
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Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.