Analysis and forecasts of 300 hPa divergence associated with severe convection using ETA-212 and MM5 model data
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Authors
Lisko, Scott C.
Subjects
Analysis
Forecasts
300 hPa
Divergence
Severe convection
ETA-212
MMS
Forecasts
300 hPa
Divergence
Severe convection
ETA-212
MMS
Advisors
Nuss, Wendell A.
Date of Issue
2005-03
Date
March 2005
Publisher
Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This study investigates severe weather events occurring in the Midwest, Central, and Northeastern United States from May through September 2004. Severe weather events are pinpointed using tornado and hail reports and correlating them with NEXRAD radar data to determine maximum intensity of the event. Severe storms that occur within 30 minutes of a model forecast hour are catalogued for further investigation. Once these events are diagnosed, ETA-212 and MM5 model data is regridded, centered on the storm. Divergence values at 300 hPa are extracted from the model data for each storm event. These storms are then grouped in three ways: all storms, tornadic storms, and hail producing storms. The averaged maximum divergence values from the ETA-212 for each group are examined from the 0 hour analysis through the 21 hour forecast. From these averaged divergence values, a matrix of recommended divergence threshold values is derived. For the MM5 data, a subset of storms is examined. The MM5 and ETA-212 are run on an identical set of storms, and the divergence forecasts are compared.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Meteorology
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xiv, 119 p. : col. ill., col. maps
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.