An analysis of counterinsurgency campaigns using Lanchestrian Based Marketing differential equations
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Authors
Blasy, Christian W.
Subjects
Advisors
Hughes, Wayne P. Jr.
Date of Issue
2010-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
We develop a campaign model for counterinsurgency that is derived from the Lanchester-inspired Vidale-Wolfe marketing model utilized in the analysis of a consumer population's dynamics. We adapt this approach for a situation in which the output of our differential equation model is not attrition but the percentage of a given population that supports a particular side in the insurgency. The model is descriptive, providing a structured framework to analyze complex inputs in a simple, straightforward and easily understood framework. Parametric observations reveal that a fledgling insurgency will grow to be a major concern if left unaddressed by the government. Data from Colombia's insurgency demonstrates that the model is well suited to reflect the movement of a population's support away from the government and toward an insurgency.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xvi, 49 p. : col. ill. ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.