Will climate change the future of homeland security?
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Authors
Wasp, Valli A.
Subjects
slow-onset disaster
climate change
critical infrastructure sectors
continuity heuristic
frameworks
homeland security
emergency management
disaster preparedness
disaster response
disaster recovery
hazard mitigation
protection mission area
sea level rise
ocean acidification
melting arctic ice
drought
climate change
critical infrastructure sectors
continuity heuristic
frameworks
homeland security
emergency management
disaster preparedness
disaster response
disaster recovery
hazard mitigation
protection mission area
sea level rise
ocean acidification
melting arctic ice
drought
Advisors
Woodbury, Glen
Bellavita, Christopher
Date of Issue
2016-09
Date
Sep-16
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Drought, melting Arctic ice, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise are all subsectors of climate change. I have identified these as slow-onset disasters. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether slow-onset disasters are adequately addressed in the homeland security discipline. Risk assessments were performed to determine the level of risk these types of disasters pose to homeland security. The critical infrastructure lifeline sectors—Energy, Communications, Transportation Systems, and Water and Wastewater Systems—were chosen for these assessments because of their identified criticality to national security. The assessments reveal slow-onset disasters pose varying degrees of risk to these sectors. Policy analyses were conducted on the components of the nation's coordinated approach to homeland security. These reveal the homeland security discipline does not adequately address slow-onset disasters because of internal contradictions. The contradictions are the result of two of the frameworks used in the development of homeland security policies—continuity heuristic and probabilistic thinking. These frameworks lead disaster-consequence planners to consider the probability and magnitude of a disaster based on a retro-focused approach. Based upon my findings, I recommend that possibilistic reasoning (anticipating the worst that could happen), coupled with a future-focused approach, be used to develop homeland security policies that will fully address the emerging threats posed by slow-onset disasters.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Organization
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.