Extending an Econophysics Value Model for Early Developmental Program Performance Prediction and Assessment
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Authors
Jones, Raymond D.
Housel, Thomas
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2018-04-30
Date
04/30/18
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This study is focused on presenting the viability of an econophysics theory of value as a means for creating a quantitative value metric to estimate the future value of Department of Defense (DoD) technology acquisition programs. We will describe a simple value model and further definitize this model into a DoD acquisition framework to illustrate the utility for developmental programs within the DoD and defense industrial base. This paper will describe a method by which a metric for surrogate financial value can be allocated across a program, allowing program managers to assess the surrogate return on investment (s-ROI) of their programs and providing greater flexibility in managing program risk. Additionally, we introduce a new program performance index that reflects s-ROI which incorporates a risk-based measure that modifies and extends the traditional earned value management (EVM) cost and schedule indices and provides an earlier indication of program challenges. We refer to this index as the s-ROI Performance Index (RPI), which has the potential of being a leading program indicator on overall program value and performance. Recommendations for the use of this model in DoD acquisitions, in general, are provided at the conclusion of this study.
Type
Presentation
Description
Series/Report No
Acquisition Research Symposium
Department
Organization
Acquisition Research Program (ARP)
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
SYM-AM-18-152
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program
Funding
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.