CLIMATE INSECURITY AND GOVERNANCE COMPETITION: THE NEAR-TERM GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DESTRUCTIVE CLIMATE EVENTS
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Authors
Kenna, Alexander R.
Alexander, Matthew R.
Subjects
climate security
instability
competition
governance
Geographic Combatant Commands
Special Operations Command
Special Operations Forces Civil Affairs
instability
competition
governance
Geographic Combatant Commands
Special Operations Command
Special Operations Forces Civil Affairs
Advisors
Borer, Douglas A.
Fletcher, Kristen
Date of Issue
2022-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The 2022 US National Security Strategy identifies two key priorities: global competition and the impact of climate instability. These two factors are adequately addressed on separate planes, yet the question remains of how can actors leverage climate insecurity for regional influence. The paper examines how regional instability can result from destructive climate events, its impact on civil populations, and opportunities for power transfers and influence. Researchers created a theoretical model to explain governance competition, analyzing three separate case studies to demonstrate the leverage of destructive climate events on a governing body. The model illustrates how existing governance can be challenged by state and or non-state actors below the threshold of armed conflict for strategic gains. The three case studies presented are Syria, Central America, and the Pacific Islands. Through the case studies and the model, researchers show that climate insecurity can be a vehicle of opportunity for the transfer of power and influence. The US government does not have a designated force to address this issue proactively, but one exists with a global presence. Researchers recommend the US Army Special Operations Forces Civil Affairs, as a force that understands, engages, and influences the civil domain, be employed to meet this identified challenge along an additional proactive line of effort, "Defend Forward," nested within the Department of Defense's Climate Adaptation Plan.
Type
Thesis
Description
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Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.