Effect of nonlinearities on orbit covariance propagation
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Authors
McLeod, Christopher W.
Subjects
Space Situational Awareness
Orbital Mechanics
Non-Linear Covariance Propagation
Orbital Mechanics
Non-Linear Covariance Propagation
Advisors
Alfriend, Kyle T.
Date of Issue
2013-09
Date
Sep-13
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis will examine the effect of nonlinearities on the propagation of orbit uncertainties in order to gain insight into the accurateness of the estimation of covariance with time. Many real-world applications rely on a first-order approximation of nonlinear equations of motion for propagation of orbit uncertainty. The nonlinear effects that are ignored during the linearization process can greatly influence the accuracy of the solution. A comparative analysis of linear and nonlinear orbit uncertainty propagation is presented in order to attempt to determine when linearized uncertainty becomes non-Gaussian. An examination of performance metrics is then accomplished to compare linearly propagated uncertainty to uncertainty propagated using a second-order approximation. An attempt is then made to develop a performance metric that determines when propagated uncertainty is no longer Gaussian. The results show it is difficult to determine a clear method of defining when the linear approximated uncertainty is no longer Gaussian, but there are metrics that can be implemented given a user-defined threshold of performance.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Space Systems Academic Group
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.