Irrational System Behavior in a System of Systems
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Authors
Van Bossuyt, Douglas L.
O’Halloran, Bryan M.
Arlitt, Ryan M.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2018
Date
2018
Publisher
IEEE
Language
Abstract
System of systems (SoS) failures can sometimes be
traced to a system within the SoS behaving in unexpected ways.
Due to their emergent complexity, these types of failures are
notoriously challenging to foresee. This paper presents a method
to aid in predicting unknown unknowns in a SoS. Irrationality
initiators – failure flows emanating from one system that serve as
unexpected initiating events in another system – are introduced
into quantitative risk analysis methods such as the Failure Flow
Identification and Propagation framework and Probabilistic Risk
Assessment. Analysis of models built using this approach yield
a probability distribution of failure paths through a system
within the SoS that are initiated by unexpected behaviors of
other systems within the SoS. The method is demonstrated using
an example of an autonomous vehicle network operating in a
partially denied environment with hostile forces present. Using
the concept of irrationality initiators, it is possible to identify and
prioritize vulnerabilities in the system of interest in the SoS.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/SYSOSE.2018.8428778
Published in: 2018 13th Annual Conference on System of Systems Engineering (SoSE)
Published in: 2018 13th Annual Conference on System of Systems Engineering (SoSE)
Series/Report No
Department
Systems Engineering (SE)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)
Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD)
Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD)
Funder
Format
7 p.
Citation
Van Bossuyt, Douglas L., Bryan M. O’Halloran, and Ryan M. Arlitt. "Irrational system behavior in a system of systems." 2018 13th Annual Conference on System of Systems Engineering (SoSE). IEEE, 2018.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.