FROM EARTH TO ORBIT: THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF U.S. AND CHINESE SPACE LAUNCH COMPETITION

Abstract

The competition between the U.S. and China in space represents a critical dimension of their strategic rivalry. This thesis examines the comparative capabilities of both nations’ space launch industries in terms of technological advancements, economic sustainability, lift capacity, and future trajectory. It explores the implications of these capabilities for future U.S.–Chinese space power dynamics and evaluates policy options for the United States to maintain and increase its strategic advantages. The research highlights how space launch serves as a key enabler of military, civil, and commercial space activities, influencing broader geopolitical competition. Using a comparative case study approach, this thesis assesses government policies, funding sources, infrastructure, and individual companies and state enterprises comprising each nation’s space launch sector. The findings in this thesis point towards the U.S. having a much more robust, healthy, and capable launch industry compared to the People’s Republic of China. This provides opportunities for U.S. advantage over China when competing in the space domain—to include the military, civil, and commercial sectors. This thesis concludes with policy recommendations to expand the U.S. competitive advantage in space: place economic sanctions on Chinese commercial launchers, sunset SLS in favor of commercial options, and explore launch options for a U.S. military pLEO non-kinetic counterspace architecture.