Prediction markets: a review with an experimentally based recommendation for Navy force-shaping application

dc.contributor.advisorArkes, Jeremy A.
dc.contributor.advisorGates, William R.
dc.contributor.authorChinn, Michael A.
dc.contributor.authorHuffman, Leslie A.
dc.contributor.corporateDepartment of Defense Management (DDM)
dc.contributor.departmentBusiness Administration
dc.dateDecember 2009
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-22T15:32:10Z
dc.date.available2012-08-22T15:32:10Z
dc.date.issued2009-12
dc.descriptionMBA Professional Reporten_US
dc.description.abstractPrediction markets generally are small-scale electronic markets that tie payoffs to measurable future events. They are similar to stock markets, where the "stocks" are outcomes or events rather than shares in a company. The growing popularity of prediction markets reflects the notion that markets are an excellent means of efficient information aggregation among a disparate group of people. Trading prices in the prediction markets provide decision makers with a timely, accurate, and continuously updated picture on the likelihood of future events. This enables decision makers to better evaluate risk. Based on historical successes in prediction market utilization, it is both logical and important to assess the usefulness of prediction markets in contributing to critical elements of Navy total force shaping. Navy Manpower, Personnel, Training, and Education (N1) regularly forecasts re-enlistment rates, over/under endstrength, and many other force-shaping factors as an input into their resource allocation decision-making process. In an effort to improve upon the force-shaping decision-making process, N1 has shown interest in using prediction markets to complement or replace alternative methods for forecasting various Navy force-shaping elements. The aim of this thesis is to act as a foundation for ongoing prediction market research within the Department of Defense (DoD).en_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/predictionmarket1094510392
dc.format.extentxviii, 103 p.en_US
dc.format.extent28 cm.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/10392
dc.publisherMonterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesMaster of Business Administration (MBA) Professional Reports
dc.subject.authorPrediction marketsen_US
dc.subject.authorinformation marketsen_US
dc.subject.authorinformation aggregationen_US
dc.subject.authorforecastingen_US
dc.subject.authorforce shapingen_US
dc.subject.lcshForecasting.en_US
dc.titlePrediction markets: a review with an experimentally based recommendation for Navy force-shaping applicationen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineBusiness Administrationen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)en_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Business Administrationen_US
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