Standard port-visit cost forecasting model for U.S. Navy husbanding contracts

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09Dec%5FMarquez%5FMBA.pdf (1.45 MB)
Authors
Marquez, Michael Alvin A.
Mercado, John I.
Rayos, Richard M.
Subjects
Husbanding Services
Standard Port-visit Cost Forecasting Model
Husbanding Service Provider
Port-Visit Cost Reports
LOGREQ
CRAFT
WWCRAFT
LogSSR
LOGCOP
COMFISCS
FISCs
CLASSRON
TYCOMS
NAVSUP
Advisors
Franck, Raymond
Wagner, Brett
Brinkley, Douglas
Date of Issue
2009-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Husbanding services are crucial elements of a port visit. In support of mission objectives, combatant commanding officers and sealift masters rely on contractors to act on the U.S. Navy's behalf in coordinating the delivery of supplies or performance of services. Through the years, the cost of port services around the world has increased in various magnitudes. However, the U.S. Navy's ability to track and analyze port-visit costs changes remains rudimentary. Current systems lack the functionality needed by the stakeholders to effectively and efficiently forecast port-visit costs. The researchers developed a Web-based modularized application that stores and displays invoices, generates reports, and more importantly, forecasts future port-visit costs using the standard port-visit cost forecasting model for husbanding contracts. The forecasting function of the application provides two predictive methods, namely confidence interval estimator and exponential smoothing. The analysis clearly shows that low requirement variability improves the reliability of the interval, while high frequency of port-visits increases the accuracy of the exponential smoothing results. The capabilities of the application provide stakeholders with a valuable tool to analyze port-visit requirements and costs trends.
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Description
MBA Professional Report
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/10412
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119 p.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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