An analysis of modeling success in explosive ordnance disposal training
Loading...
Authors
Ritland, Trevor J.
Subjects
Advisors
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Date of Issue
2010-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis is a follow-on study to the Master of Business Administration (MBA) project, Grade Point Average as a Predictor of Success at Explosive Ordnance Disposal Training, completed in December 2009 by Lieutenant Sarah Turse and this author. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze, develop and provide a more accurate student graduation prediction model than the current model in place at Naval School Explosive Ordnance Disposal (NAVSCOLEOD). The school's current model was produced five year ago using ordinary linear regression. This outdated model was compared to the new model generated in this study using statistical techniques such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Our analysis finds that the student's branch of service, GPA, and the division in which the student failed each significantly impact predicting a student's future. We also find that the interaction between GPA and division also significantly impacts the prediction. Finally, we conclude that using a logistic regression instead a linear regression captures the binary output (graduated or did not graduate) better. Our improved model increases the prediction probability by roughly 2 percent using student data from 2004 to 2008.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
xvi, 57 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.