Exploiting Navy officer End-of-Active-Obligated-Service (EAOS)--date in forecasting losses

Abstract

The key to effective military personnel planning is accurate loss forecasting. Accurate estimates of future losses enable personnel managers to determine the number of individuals to recruit and promote, as well as the size and cost for future personnel inventories. This thesis describes the generation and analysis of several simple lose rate forecasting models. The models are divided into two classes, those that incorporate eligibility data and those that do not. Aviation officers, particularly pilots, were narrowed down to Lieutenants with four to nine years of commissioned service. They were divided into three communities (jet, prop and helo). Two methods of loss forecasting were used, BI which is somewhat akin to OP-01s technique and the method I wish to exploit, EAOS. EAOS techniques appear to contribute more to officer loss forecasting than the BI technique. However, BI techniques are still significant but to a lesser degree. The findings are discussed within the context of the study.