Why failing terrorist groups persist revisited: a social network approach to AQIM network resilience
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Authors
Baker, Tyler D.
Subjects
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
SNA
social network analysis
AQIM
Ansar Dine
Macina Liberation Front
GSPC
GIA
Group for Salafist Preaching and Combat
Islamic Armed Group
Niger
Mali
Algeria
Burkina Faso
Cote D'Ivoire
Mauritania
SNA
social network analysis
AQIM
Ansar Dine
Macina Liberation Front
GSPC
GIA
Group for Salafist Preaching and Combat
Islamic Armed Group
Niger
Mali
Algeria
Burkina Faso
Cote D'Ivoire
Mauritania
Advisors
Everton, Sean
Date of Issue
2015-12
Date
Dec-17
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
To date, most analyses of the Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) network have focused on qualitative analysis to determine trends and patterns in the group's evolution over time. Seldom has a combination of quantitative tools been used to derive inferences about the nature of the organization and its changing strategy. In this paper, the author draws on a combination of geospatial analysis and social network analysis in order to explore how the network has changed over time in response to efforts from local and international security forces to disrupt it. The analysis enables the community of interest to draw conclusions with regard to the resiliency of the network and its long-term goals in the Sahel region. Evidence indicates that AQIM is evolving into a less dense but more ethnically diverse organization that is rapidly restoring the operational capacity it lost during the 2013 French intervention in Mali. Despite major Western military efforts to suppress it, AQIM is increasingly able to conduct spectacular attacks across west Africa, further destabilizing an already precarious security environment. The thesis concludes with recommendations for crafting a strategy tailored to degrading and containing the threat from AQIM and its affiliates.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.