SAILING WITH THE DRAGON: SOUTHEAST ASIA’S INCREASED MARITIME COOPERATION WITH CHINA, 2012-2021
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Authors
Duncan, Matthew B.
Subjects
China
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Southeast Asia
SEA
ASEAN
United States
ARF
security
maritime
cooperation
alliance
Navy
exercises
South China Sea
SCS
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Southeast Asia
SEA
ASEAN
United States
ARF
security
maritime
cooperation
alliance
Navy
exercises
South China Sea
SCS
Advisors
Malley, Michael S.
Date of Issue
2022-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
China’s maritime security cooperation with Southeast Asia has dramatically increased since the early 21st century. Despite increased tensions in the South China Sea (SCS), there has been an increase in naval exercises between Southeast Asia and China over the past ten years. There are two primary research questions addressed in this thesis. First, what patterns do China and Southeast Asian naval exercises exhibit? Second, what factors best explain these patterns in maritime cooperation? The thesis compiles a comprehensive dataset of naval exercises that involve China, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines from 2012 to 2021 and identifies patterns in their frequency, analyzes the characteristics of the exercises, and evaluates explanations for these patterns. This thesis determines that Southeast Asian security cooperation is influenced by the presence or absence of a formal security alliance with the United States and the presence or absence of a territorial dispute with China. Southeast Asian countries are also more likely to conduct a naval exercise with China multilaterally through ASEAN-related exercises or when the United States is also present. Bilaterally, the Philippines refrains from naval exercises with China. Vietnam only participates with China in joint patrols near the Gulf of Tonkin. Thailand and Singapore have both increased the frequency and complexity of their exercises with China.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.