CYBER TACTICS AND TECHNIQUES AS CATALYSTS: EXPLORING THE SHIFT FROM COERCIVE TO CYBER PERSISTENCE THEORY IN UKRAINE

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25Mar_Del Alamo Ruiz_Rodrigo Herbert.pdf (7.73 MB)
Authors
Del Alamo Ruiz, Rodrigo Herbert
Subjects
cyber strategy
cyber operations
cyber tactics
Russia–Ukraine war
cyber conflict
TTP
Cyber tactics
MITRE
Advisors
Davis, Duane T.
Shives, Timothy R.
Date of Issue
2025-03
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Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Cyber persistence theory has recently emerged as a means of better understanding nation–state behavior in cyberspace. The shift from coercive cyber postures to ones based on cyber persistence requires a new understanding of contemporary cyber conflicts. This thesis uses the Russia–Ukraine conflict as a case study to explore how cyber tactics, techniques, and procedures exemplify this transition. The research attempts to understand how cyber operations have evolved from coercive and disruptive attacks to long-term engagement. The study employs qualitative research methods to examine cases of a major cyber campaign: HermeticWiper (data destruction), the ViaSat cyberattack (communications disruption), and attacks on the electric power grid (sabotage of critical infrastructure). Open-source intelligence and cybersecurity reports are used to develop structured Lockheed Martin Cyber Kill Chain and MITRE ATT&CK framework models to characterize and understand adversarial behavior. The findings indicate that Russian cyber operations are persistent rather than coercive in nature in that planning and execution occurred over a long period of time, and that the operations were intended to cause prolonged disruption and exploitation rather than immediate decisive effects. It further concludes that Ukraine’s cyber defense is also better characterized as persistent than coercive and that partnerships, information sharing, and proactive defensive measures have strengthened its cyber defenses.
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Thesis
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https://hdl.handle.net/10945/73637
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Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
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