The Definition of GOES Infrared Lightning Initiation Interest Fields
Authors
Harris, Ryan J.
Mecikalski, John R.
MacKenzie, Wayne M.
Durkee, Philip A.
Nielsen, Kurt E.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2010-12
Date
Publisher
Language
Abstract
Within cumulus cloud fields that develop in conditionally unstable air masses, only a fraction of the cumuli
may eventually develop into deep convection. Identifying which of these convective clouds is most likely to
generate lightning often starts with little more than a qualitative visual satellite analysis. The goal of this study
is to identify the observed satellite infrared (IR) signatures associated with growing cumulus clouds prior to
the first lightning strike, or lightning initiation (LI). This study quantifies the behavior of 10 Geostationary
Operational Environmental Satellite-12 (GOES-12) IR fields of interest in the 1 h in advance of LI. A total of
172 lightning-producing storms, which occurred during the 2009 convective season, are manually tracked and
studied over four regions: northern Alabama, central Oklahoma, the Kennedy Space Center, and Washington,
D.C. Four-dimensional and cloud-to-ground lightning array data provide a total cloud lightning
picture (in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud, cloud-to-air, and cloud-to-ground) and thus precise LI points for each storm
in both time and space. Statistical significance tests are conducted on observed trends for each of the 10 LI
fields to determine the unique information each field provides in terms of behavior prior to LI. Eight out of 10
LI fields exhibited useful information at least 15 min in advance of LI, with 35 min being the average. Statistical
tests on these eight fields are compared for separate large geographical areas. Median IR temperatures
and 3.9-mm reflectance values are then determined for all 172 events as an outcome, which may be valuable
when implementing a LI prediction algorithm into real-time satellite-based systems.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2575.1
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 49, pp. 2527-2543, December 2010
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.