A statistical analysis of Western Pacific tropical cyclone forecast errors.
Loading...
Authors
Nicklin, Donald Stevens
Subjects
NA
Advisors
Jarrell, J.D.
van der Bijl, W.
Date of Issue
1977-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Western Pacific tropical cyclone position forecast errors for 10 years (1966-1975) are statistically analyzed. Variations of errors versus a dozen parameters are examined and the trends over the 10 years are discussed. Discriminant analysis techniques were used to isolate categories where forecasts were likely to be above and below the median in East-West and North-South error components. The discriminant analysis was tested on 1976 data and the results are presented. It was confirmed that a small number of readily available parameters, such as location, maximum winds, and speed of movement, can, with reasonable effectiveness, classify a tropical cyclone forecast as representing a group either markedly above or below average errors.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
NA