Predicting U.S. Army Reserve unit manning using market demographics
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Authors
Parker, Nathan L.
Subjects
U.S. Army Reserve
USAR
manning
stationing
readiness
recruiting
data analysis
logistic regression
classification tree
USAR
manning
stationing
readiness
recruiting
data analysis
logistic regression
classification tree
Advisors
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Alt, Jonathan K.
Date of Issue
2015-06
Date
Jun-15
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis develops a data-driven, statistical model capable of predicting a U.S. Army Reserve (USAR) unit’s manning level based on the demographics of the unit’s location. This model will aid decision-makers involved in USAR stationing by assessing the ability of a proposed stationing location to support a unit’s manning requirements. USAR units must recruit the majority of their personnel from the population within immediate proximity to the unit. Since the recruiting boundaries of multiple reserve centers often overlap, this thesis first develops an allocation method that ensures the population is not over-counted. This thesis then develops linear regression, classification tree, and logistic regression models to determine the ability of the location to support manning requirements. These models demonstrate that local demographic factors are a key driver in the ability of unit to meet its manning requirements. In particular, the logistic regression model delivers predictive results that allow decision-makers to identify locations with a high probability of meeting unit manning requirements. The recommendation of this thesis is that the USAR implement the logistic regression model.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Operations Research
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.