How will the Indian military's upgrade and modernization of its ISR, precision strike, and missile defense affect the stability in South Asia?
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Authors
Dewan, Jay P.
Subjects
"Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance"
ISR
Precision strike
Missile defense
Stability
Instability
India
Pakistan
China
United States
Conventional Military Balance
Balance of power
South Asia
ISR
Precision strike
Missile defense
Stability
Instability
India
Pakistan
China
United States
Conventional Military Balance
Balance of power
South Asia
Advisors
Lavoy, Peter R.
Date of Issue
2005-03
Date
March 2005
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
India has made a concerted effort to upgrade its ISR, precision strike, and missile defense capabilities as it competes with China and Pakistan for regional power. The Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System, Su-30MKI fighter-bomber aircraft, and S-300PMU surface-to-air missile system are some examples of the new capabilities India is acquiring. I argue that if India continues its military modernization, Pakistan will become more insecure. The increase in the conventional military capabilities gap will likely upset the existing balance of power in South Asia, leading to a regional arms race, lowering the nuclear threshold, and increasing instability in the region. The strategic stability/tactical instability paradox that exists between two nuclear countries may lead them to engage in "small" wars. India's increasing military capabilities may encourage it to conduct a preventive strike against Pakistan. In such a climate, a regional arms race eventually may lead Pakistan to establish a "hair-trigger" nuclear posture. India's effort to achieve a significantly superior conventional military force over Pakistan paradoxically may reduce Indian security by causing greater instability, and possibly lead to nuclear war. Regional stability is enhanced to the extent that there is a rough conventional military balance between India and Pakistan.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of National Security Affairs
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
x, 77 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.