Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a fire-induced accident scenario involving binary variables and mechanistic codes
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Authors
Minton, Mark A.
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Advisors
Date of Issue
2010-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
In response to the transition by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection rulemaking standard, Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been improved, particularly in the areas of advanced fire modeling and computational methods. In order to gain a more meaningful insight into the methods currently in practice, it was decided that a scenario incorporating the various elements of uncertainty specific to a fire PRA would be analyzed. Fire induced Main Control Room (MCR) abandonment scenarios are a significant contributor to the total Core Damage Frequency (CDF) estimate of many operating nuclear power plants. This report details the simultaneous application of state-of-the-art model and parameter uncertainty techniques to develop a defensible distribution of the probability of a forced MCR abandonment caused by a fire within a MCR benchboard. This report details the simultaneous application of state-of-the-art model and parameter uncertainty techniques to develop a defensible distribution of the probability of a forced MCR abandonment caused by a fire within a MCR.
Type
Thesis
Description
CIVINS (Civilian Institutions) Thesis document
Series/Report No
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Contract number: N62271-97-G-0026.
CIVINS
CIVINS
Format
vii, 87 p. : ill.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.