The Navy's Analog Scheme for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean
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Authors
Jarrell, Jerry D.
Mauck, Charles J.
Renard, Robert J.
Subjects
Tropical Cyclones
Hurricanes
Eastern North Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Hurricanes
Eastern North Pacific Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Advisors
Date of Issue
1975-03
Date
1975-03
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacific Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) forecast program is introduced. EPANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. The selected analog tracks, statistically adjusted for position, vector motion, and date differences between them and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecasted, and composited into a single forecast track. Verification of EPANALOG forecasts to 96 hours are shown for randomly selected historical tropical cyclones as initiated from best-track positions statistically adjusted to simulate position inaccuracies, as well as for forecasts general from 1973 operational tropical cyclone positions. The latter are intercompared with a homogeneous set of objective persistence an MOHATT forecasts as well as subjective official forecasts for the 24-, 48- and 72-hour intervals. The accuracy of the 1973 EPANALOG is shown to generally exceed that of the existent techniques for all forecast intervals tested.
Type
Technical Report
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Technical Paper No. 6-75
Sponsors
Naval Air Systems Command, Navy Department
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.