Accuracy of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts in the North Pacific and Atlantic
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Authors
Elsberry, Russell
Boothe, Mark
Blackerby, Jason
Lambert, Tara
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2006
Date
2006
Publisher
Language
Abstract
In recent years, track forecasts by dynamical
models have improved, and subsequently, the
consensus track forecast has become a reliable
“starting point” for the forecaster. However,
Blackerby (2005) and Lambert (2005) have
shown that improvements of intensity forecasts
have been slower in coming (Fig. 1). Given the lack of skill of intensity forecast techniques, a
consensus of such techniques does not perform
as well as a consensus of track forecasts, and the
lack of a good consensus makes the forecast of
intensity a daunting task.
Type
Conference Paper
Description
Extended Abstract
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
3 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.