Positive communications: the keystone of counterinsurgency strategy
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Authors
Pham, Truc T.
Sieber, Michael J.
Subjects
Counterinsurgency
positive communications
measure of effectiveness
insurgent violence
regression models
positive communications
measure of effectiveness
insurgent violence
regression models
Advisors
Warren, T. Camber
Date of Issue
2014-12
Date
Dec-13
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Over the last decade, the United States military has struggled to develop methodologies to assess success in its execution of counterinsurgency operations. By examining Zabul province, Afghanistan, this study offers a quantitative method to measure the effectiveness of positive communications that counterinsurgents conduct as part of their information strategy to mobilize public support for the incumbent government. We test the hypothesis that positive communications play a significant role in shaping popular attitudes and, when conducted by counterinsurgents, influence the population to support the government and deny safe haven for insurgents. Estimating a variety of regression models, we utilize high-resolution spatio-temporal data to isolate the casual effect of population engagements and radio broadcasts in relation to levels of insurgent violence over time and space. The evidence supports our prediction that positive communications conducted by counterinsurgents reduce insurgent violence.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.