The use of exponential smoothing to produce yearly updates of loss rate estimates in Marine Corps manpower models.
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Authors
Hogan, Daniel L. Jr.
Subjects
exponential smoothing
attrition rates
James-Stein estimators
limited translation James-Stein estimators
transformed scale cell average
attrition rates
James-Stein estimators
limited translation James-Stein estimators
transformed scale cell average
Advisors
Read, Robert R.
Date of Issue
1986-06
Date
June 1986
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
The use of exponential smoothing to perform yearly
updating of attrition rates is examined and has merit. It
shows enormous flexibility in adjusting to changes in the
environment affecting the attrition rates, and it displays
almost as much accuracy as the method it is intended to
replace while using thousands of times less data.
A secondary purpose of this study is fulfilled in
confirming that the current aggregate methods are outperformed
by maximum likelihood estimation, transform cell
scale average, James-Stein, and limited translation
James-Stein. None of these four methods is dominant overall,
but all are improvements over the estimation system now
employed.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
104 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.