Terrain Ruggedness and Limits of Political Repression: Evidence from China’s Great Leap Forward and Famine (1959-61)
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Authors
Gooch, Elizabeth
Subjects
China
geography
food security
history
causality
state power
forced labor
political economy
institutions
geography
food security
history
causality
state power
forced labor
political economy
institutions
Advisors
Date of Issue
2019-08-14
Date
Publisher
Language
Abstract
Chairman Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward development plan strongly affected food security in
rural China at the time, given that many of the associated policies exploited rural labor and extracted
resources. A few months after the plan’s initial implementation in August 1958, food shortages were
reported; by the spring of 1961, more than 30 million citizens had died of starvation and famine-related
illnesses. However, as the national plan was rolled out and then upheld over three years, on-the-ground
implementation was nonuniform. Using georeferenced terrain ruggedness data which captures small-scale topological irregularities and information on provincial leadership attitudes towards Mao’s plan, I
provide evidence on forces underlying the famine’s intensity and distribution. The analysis is based on
a differential effect, in which a fear-based incentive structure characterizing the plan’s implementation is
implicitly embedded. The baseline results indicate that rugged terrain protected more than 4.6 million
rural Chinese from dying in the famine. By identifying an additional benefit of ruggedness to health and
well-being in some rural communities, I show that not only does a causal relationship exist at a local
level between Great Leap policies and famine mortality, but also that the lethality of the policies varied
per state power at the time.
Type
Preprint
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Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Format
42 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted.