Promises of political dialogue: changes in Myanmar's ceasefire process
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Authors
Kwak, Simon Y.
Subjects
Burma
Myanmar
ethnicity
ethnic minority groups
ethnic conflict
ceasefire negotiations
bilateral ceasefires
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement
Kachin
Karen
federal union
federalism
Myanmar
ethnicity
ethnic minority groups
ethnic conflict
ceasefire negotiations
bilateral ceasefires
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement
Kachin
Karen
federal union
federalism
Advisors
Malley, Michael
Date of Issue
2017-12
Date
Dec-17
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Myanmar's central government has wrestled with ethnically linked violence and separatism since its independence in 1948. Bilateral ceasefire efforts in the late 1980s and early 1990s achieved partial success, as many ethnic minority groups agreed to the ceasefires. The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) process from 2011-2015 aimed to complete the task. This thesis explores why some groups signed the NCA and some refused. The comparative analysis of the two ceasefire processes, focusing on the Kachin and Karen minority groups, shows that the marked political shift in 2011 with President Thein Sein's administration affected ethnic minority groups' decisions of whether to sign the accord. Due to the built-up mistrust of the military government from broken ceasefire promises of economic development and political dialogue, along with a renewal of conflict, ethnic groups that had participated in the earlier ceasefire process tended to abstain from the NCA. Conversely, as the non-bilateral ceasefire groups had not amassed any additional resentment toward the government, they bought into the innovative NCA process, which promised future political dialogue toward a federal union. For the ceasefire negotiation process to succeed, Myanmar's government will need to cease the violence and obtain the trust of the remaining non-ceasefire groups to persuade them to sign the NCA.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.