Northeast Pacific Climate Change Mechanisms

Abstract

We are investigating mechanisms of climate change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) relevant to variations in marine ecosystems, especially fishery populations. In this research, we are synthesizing and analyzing extensive historical oceanic and atmospheric data sets. Our work uses global, high-resolution, ocean models to simulate processes not adequately represented in observations (see Ocean Model box). We also are using atmospheric models to identify atmospheric processes that lead to climate change in the NEP. Seasonal cycles of key observed and modeled ocean fields are being related to atmospheric forcing fields, and compared with the mechanisms of interannual and decadal variations, with emphasis on major interannual (e.g., El Niño and La Niña) events, and possible decadal regime shifts around 1990 and 1998. We are comparing basin scale and regional changes to see if similar mechanisms operate at these different spatial scales. From these analyses, biologically relevant indices of climate change are being developed. The observational and model products we are developing cover a wide range of environmental data sets and indices that define climate change in the NEP and its ecosystem effects. These products are being delivered through the web, principally via the PFEL live access server site: http://salmonid.pfeg.noaa.gov/las.html.