Evaluating forecasting methods for cash management in the Navy Working Capital Fund
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Authors
Bestercy, Robert J.
Subjects
Cash Management
Forecasting
Models
Financial Management
Budgeting
Navy Working Capital Fund
Forecasting
Models
Financial Management
Budgeting
Navy Working Capital Fund
Advisors
Liao, Shu S.
Mutty, John E.
Date of Issue
1998-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis researches business forecasting models and methodologies for application in the management of cash in the Navy Working Capital Fund (NWCF). The recent dissolution of the Defense Business Operations Fund (DBOF) and establishment of the service Working Capital Funds has resulted in an increased emphasis on effective cash management practices at the service level. Unpredicted outlays in an era of severely declining budgets have caused farther scrutiny of cash management practices in the NWCF, which generates nearly $20 billion annually in revenues and expenditures. Forecasting models within the NWCF and outside the Department of Defense were evaluated for potential application at the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Financial Management & Comptroller) (ASN (FM&C) and Supply Management Activity Group (NWCF-SM) level of the NWCF. Specifically, the NWCF-SM expenditures forecasting model was analyzed and evaluated for possible implementation across all NWCF business activities. Additionally, a developmental cash management system was analyzed and recommendations were made for improvement. Finally, several forecasting methodologies and private sector forecasting benchmarks were discussed to illustrate techniques that may be applicable in NWCF cash management. Cash collection and disbursement data were collected at ASN (FM&C) and NWCF-SM and evaluated for forecasting possibilities in the aforementioned models and methodologies. A simple probabilistic model was presented for application in NWCF cash management
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
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NPS Report Number
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Format
ix, 153 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.