Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models
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Authors
Ivanov, L.M.
Chu, Peter C.
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Date of Issue
2005
Date
2005
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Abstract
Probabilistic aspects of regional ocean model predictability
is analyzed using the probability density function
(PDF) of the irreversible predictability time (IPT) (called t -PDF) computed from an unconstrained ensemble of stochastic perturbations in initial conditions, winds, and open boundary conditions. Two-attractors (a chaotic attractor and a small-amplitude stable limit cycle) are found in the winddriven circulation. Relationship between attractor’s residence time and IPT determines the -PDF for the short (up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to two months) predictions. The t-PDF is usually non-Gaussian but not multimodal for red-noise perturbations in initial conditions and perturbations in the wind and open boundary conditions. Bifurcation of t -PDF occurs as the tolerance level varies. Generally, extremely successful predictions (corresponding to the t-PDF’s tail toward large IPT domain) are not outliers and share the same statistics as a whole ensemble of predictions.
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Article
Description
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, European Geosciences Union/American Geophysical Union, 12, 1-10.
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Oceanography
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Citation
Chu, P.C., and L.M. Ivanov, 2005: Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models (paper download). Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, European Geosciences Union/American Geophysical Union, 12, 1-10.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.