DIVIDED WE FALL: PREVENTING MASS VIOLENCE THROUGH BEHAVIORAL THREAT ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT TEAMS
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Authors
Sears, Shelby E.
Subjects
mass violence
prevention
behavioral
threat
assessment
management
prevention
behavioral
threat
assessment
management
Advisors
Matei, Cristiana
Wollman, Lauren F.
Date of Issue
2025-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
The threat of mass violence weighs heavily on the American public, who brace for future attacks without a clear strategy for prevention. Offender profiling emerged in the mid-20th century as a prevention for complex criminal issues. Still, it failed to survive the scientific method and was determined to be more a parlor trick than a reliable tool. Since the inception of the modern mass violence phenomenon, behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM) has emerged, analyzing behaviors common to mass shooters and allowing a deliberate prevention effort based on data and scientific analysis. This thesis uses three Kentucky-based mass violence incidents as cases, applying counterfactuals to BTAM in those cases. The first was a workplace shooting that occurred in 1989 in Louisville, Kentucky, and shows that had the BTAM been in place, all involved would have prevention resources and strategies. The next case is from the Heath High School shooting in 1997 near Paducah, Kentucky, which showed the promise of prevention strategies. The last case, the Old National Bank shooting in 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky, showed the limitations of BTAM in prevention and is included to ensure that proponents of the evidence-based BTAM program do not rely solely on any single solution for the prevention of violence. Finally, the thesis explores the imperative to incorporate a pre-event prevention plan in addition to the extensive and necessary response-based focus that mass shootings require.
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Thesis
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Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
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