WHY HAVE SOME SOUTHEAST ASIAN RESPONSES TO CHINESE ACTIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEEN MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN OTHERS?
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Authors
Halper, Marshall J.
Subjects
Southeast Asian responses
regional responses
South China Sea
Chinese coast guard
Chinese maritime militia
regional responses
South China Sea
Chinese coast guard
Chinese maritime militia
Advisors
Malley, Michael S.
Date of Issue
2021-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Over the past decade, Southeast Asian countries have struggled to devise effective responses to China’s efforts to assert its claims in the South China Sea. This thesis aims to explain why some of those responses have been more successful than others. Using five case studies from 2012–2020, this thesis examines how the following four factors account for the success or failure of Vietnamese and Malaysian responses: increased external balancing with the U.S., increased internal balancing, increased coercive diplomacy, and stronger diplomatic support from the international community. The thesis finds that successful responses rely on a combination of internal balancing with coercive diplomacy and international support. It finds only weak evidence that countries in Southeast Asia engage in external balancing in response to China’s actions in the region. These conclusions suggest that the United States should increase its diplomatic and military cooperation with Southeast Asian partners in ways that enhance their capacity to deploy maritime forces and generate international support in response to Chinese assertiveness. Future research should examine whether increased military cooperation with middle powers such as India and Australia may contribute to more successful outcomes.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.