The impact of the drawdown on minority officer retention

Abstract

This thesis examines the effects of the recent military drawdown on the separation behavior of minority officers. The objectives of this thesis are: (1) to determine if significant differences exist in the retention/separation behavior of minority and non-minority officers; (2) to determine if any such differences have been affected by the drawdown; and (3) to attempt to link any findings with specific drawdown programs and policies. Using data provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center, cross-sectional profiles of the officer corps are constructed for the period 1987 through 1994. Utilizing separation probability density functions for 1977, 1980, 1983, and 1987 officer cohorts, different phases of officer separation activity are identified for each service. Log-linear survival and logit separation models are then estimated for each phase to assess the effects of minority status on separation behavior. Finally, VSI (Voluntary Separation Incentive) and SSB (Special Separation Bonus) data files are examined with respect to Air Force and Navy offerings. The results show that minority officers are more likely to separate early in their careers (zero to three years) and around the flow point for 0-4 promotion. The data indicate that differences between minority and non-minority separation rates have decreased through the drawdown. The data also suggest that minorities are less likely to accept the VSI/SSB separation incentive, at least in the initial years of the program. The thesis concludes with policy recommendations and identifies areas for future research.