Extension of the systematic approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the eastern and central North Pacific
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Authors
Boothe, Mark A.
Subjects
Tropical cyclone track forecasating
Advisors
Elsberry, Russell L.
Date of Issue
1997-12
Date
December 1997
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This study extends an earlier study (White 1995) of the application of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting of Carr and Elsberry to the eastern and central North Pacific, and contrasts these cases with those in the western North Pacific. The data sample is first expanded to seven years (1990-1996). Modifications to the environment structure conceptual models are: (1) introduction of two Dominant Ridge synoptic regions named Ridge Poleward and Ridge Equatorward based on the bowed orientation of the subtropical anticyclone; and (2) combining the Weak Westerlies and Accelerating Westerlies into just one synoptic region called Midlatitude Westerlies. Only eight synoptic pattern/region combinations are needed to classify all of the 1858 cases. Additions to the transitional mechanisms include: (1) the formation and dissipation of the mid-level low; (2) monsoon trough formation; and (3) orography. A new transition climatology reveals that a large fraction of transitions occur between the regions of the Standard pattern. Subtropical Ridge Modulation and Vertical Wind Shear are determined to be the most important transitional mechanisms. Synoptic analysis sequences are provided to illustrate the synoptic pattern/regions and the primary transitions.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Meteorology
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xii, 134 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.