Application of model output statistics to tropical cyclone forecasting in the western Pacific.
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Authors
Little, Robert Ernest
Subjects
tropical cyclones
ridge regression
model output statistics
forecast
analog
track
ridge regression
model output statistics
forecast
analog
track
Advisors
Jarrell, J.D.
Date of Issue
1976-03
Date
March 1976
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Analog tropical cyclone forecasting techniques
inherently include some mean interaction of the
cyclone with its synoptic environment. This
investigation seeks to relate current synoptic
features to storm displacement. The objective
forecasting technique, Model Output statistics (MOS),
along with the so called "ridge regression" biased
estimator are used to predict recurvature or
non-recurvature of tropical cyclones. Corrections to
an analog forecast position are also predicted. It is
shown that a larger data set is required before any
conclusive results in predicting recurvature or
non-recurvature can be made. However, the most
fruitful area for application of MOS does appear to be
in the recurvature / non-recurvature problem and not
in the area of corrections to an analog forecast. The
ridge regression estimator generally proves superior
to the ordinary least squares estimator as a method of
determining predictive equations.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.