Reserve Training Center Decision Support Tools -- Project Continuation - Hurrican Decision Simulator
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Authors
Regnier, Eva
Hernandez, Andy
Subjects
hurricane
emergency operations
risk management
emergency operations
risk management
Advisors
Date of Issue
2018-06-11
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Timely preparation for hurricanes is essential to both mission and personnel safety and health for the Marine Forces Reserve (MFR). This project developed, deployed and evaluated the Hurricane Decision Simulator (HDS), an online training tool that enables the Commander and key personnel at MFR Headquarters and other key staff to rapidly gain experience in hurricane preparation decision making in a realistic context, with hundreds of simulated storms. The HDS decision context was modeled, and the HDS (version 0) was originally built for the MFR Headquarters in New Orleans in 2015. An online deployment was built in 2016 (v. 1.0). In 2017, the Hialeah Reserve Training Center was added as was the capability to introduce new decision contexts, and the synthetic storm generation model was updated (v. 2.0). Preliminary human-subjects experiments on the impact of the HDS were conducted in 2017, and a second round is planned for later this year. In 2018, further refinements on v. 2.0 were made. The MFR uses the HDS in its annual hurricane preparations, and the (retired) G-3 indicated that the HDS “...helps us to manage our operations more effectively both in terms of training and in readiness in the event that a hurricane hits New Orleans.” The HDS has reduced the cost and increased the number of storms used in training, and focused attention on uncertainty and decision making, rather than implementation. There is also anecdotal evidence that it has improved users’ understanding of National Hurricane Center forecast products.
Type
Report
Description
NPS NRP Executive Summary
Series/Report No
Department
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
MFR
Funding
This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Format
6 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.