Accounting for uncertainty in a business case analysis for implementing advanced technology ordnance surveillance in a munitions management environment

Abstract

The purpose of this project was to support the Advanced Technology Ordnance Surveillance (ATOS) project office in conducting a return on investment analysis. The approach taken to support the ROI analysis was to build a model consistent with the need for a Business Case Analysis (BCA) for an ATOS Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD), which allows generating the return on investment distribution, while also assuming a range of uncertain savings assumptions. Additionally, the model that was built required testing with notional data in order to evaluate its functionality.