Agent-based simulation of disease spread aboard ship
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Authors
Gutierrez, Louis Michael
Subjects
Disease
Modeling
Simulation
Modeling
Simulation
Advisors
Darken, Chris
Date of Issue
2005-03
Date
March 2005
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Extreme examples like the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 make clear the devastating impact that communicable diseases can have on military readiness. It is highly desirable to have models and tools that can be used to evaluate the course of a disease over time. These tools can help assess the effectiveness of strategies employed to contain the outbreak such as constraining movement, wearing protective gloves or masks, closing high traffic areas, etc. Armed with these tools, a medical practitioner can better assess the right course of action in a time critical situation. The primary difficulty with creating models and simulations for this purpose is that disease spread depends upon the details of human behavior and environmental variables which are not accounted for in current mathematical models. The likelihood that a particular individual will catch a given disease depends upon such specifics as where he works, whom he interacts with, where he sleeps, what he eats, his habits of personal hygiene, etc. It is hypothesized that a software disease simulation can combine agents that mimic human behavior, a ship specific environment, and disease specific attributes to more accurately model the spread of disease aboard ship than a mathematical model.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
MOVES Academic Committee
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xiv, 49 p. : ill. (some col.)
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.